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Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland.

Alison Donnelly1, Rong Yu, Lingling Liu

  • 1Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, 53201, USA, alison.c.donnelly@gmail.com.

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Climate warming causes different spring phenology shifts across trophic levels. Moths, birds, and trees show varying rates of advancement, risking ecosystem disruption due to timing mismatches in food webs.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Phenology

Background:

  • Ecosystem functioning depends on species interactions, which can be disrupted by differential responses to environmental changes.
  • Climate warming is altering spring phenological events globally, potentially leading to ecological imbalances.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate spring phenological trends across three trophic levels (trees, moths, birds) in Ireland as indicators of ecosystem response to climate warming.
  • To assess the rate of phenological advancement in different species groups and identify potential timing mismatches.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of long-term datasets (1976-2009) on leaf unfolding (trees), moth emergence, and bird arrival dates.
  • Statistical examination of phenological trends in relation to rising spring temperatures.
  • Calculation of the time intervals between phenological events across trophic levels.

Main Results:

  • All three groups (trees, moths, birds) exhibited a significant advance in spring phenology, correlated with increasing spring temperatures (0.45 °C/decade).
  • Moths showed the fastest rate of advancement (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year).
  • Significant decreases in the time intervals between moth emergence and tree leaf unfolding, and between moth emergence and bird arrival were observed, indicating reduced synchrony.

Conclusions:

  • Differential phenological responses among trophic levels due to climate warming can lead to mismatches in interdependent ecological events.
  • Long-term phenological data, even if not initially collected for climate studies, can serve as valuable early warning indicators of ecosystem disruption.
  • Monitoring these phenological shifts is crucial for understanding and predicting future ecosystem stability under continued climate change.