Baseline heterogeneity in glucose metabolism marks the risk for type 1 diabetes and complicates secondary prevention

Non-diabetic children with multiple islet autoantibodies were recruited to a secondary prevention trial. The objective was to determine the predictive value of baseline (1) HbA1c and metabolic variables derived from intravenous (IvGTT) and oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT), (2) insulin resistance and (3) number, type and levels of islet autoantibodies, for progression to type 1 diabetes.

Children [n = 50, median 5.1 (4-17.9) years] with autoantibodies to glutamate decarboxylase (GAD65A) and at least one of insulinoma-associated protein 2 (IA-2A), insulin or ZnT8 transporter (ZnT8RA, ZnT8WA, ZnT8QA) were screened with IvGTT and OGTT and followed for a minimum of 2 years.

Baseline first phase insulin response (sum of serum-insulin at 1 and 3 min during IvGTT; FPIR) ≤3 μU/mL [HR 4.42 (CI 1.40-14.0) p = 0.011] and maximal plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L measured at 30, 60 and/or 90 min during OGTT [HR 6.13 (CI 1.79-21.0) p = 0.0039] were predictors for progression to diabetes. The combination of FPIR from IvGTT and maximal plasma glucose during OGTT predicted diabetes in 10/12 children [HR 9.17 (CI 2.0-42.0) p = 0.0043]. High-level IA-2A, but not number of autoantibodies, correlated to dysglycemia during OGTT (p = 0.008) and to progression to type 1 diabetes [HR 4.98 (CI 1.09-22.0) p = 0.039].

Baseline FPIR, maximal plasma glucose ≥11.1 at 30, 60 or 90 min during OGTT and high-level IA-2A need to be taken into account when randomizing islet autoantibody positive non-diabetic children to secondary prevention.