NHS: a brave new world? Reflections on the Five Year Forward View

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 

Counterfactual thinking is a cognitive process wherein individuals mentally reconstruct alternative versions of past events, often beginning with “what if” or “if only.” This reflective mechanism plays a significant role in shaping emotional experiences and guiding future behavior. Though typically triggered by unfavorable or unexpected outcomes, counterfactual thinking can also emerge in mundane, everyday decisions and experiences, revealing its deep entrenchment in...

Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...

Jeffrey Arnett's concept of emerging adulthood offers a framework to understand the unique developmental stage between adolescence and full-fledged adulthood, generally from ages 18 to 25. This period is marked by extensive exploration and shifts in identity, relationships, and career choices, a process known in psychology as role experimentation. Emerging adulthood reflects the evolving cultural expectations surrounding adulthood and the dynamic process of personal transformation during...

Carol Dweck introduced the term mindset to describe individuals' beliefs about their intellectual and personal capabilities. These beliefs significantly influence psychological processes such as motivation, goal-setting, and perseverance, ultimately shaping academic and life outcomes. Individuals generally possess one of two mindsets- a fixed or a growth mindset—each promoting different responses to success, failure, and challenge.Fixed vs. Growth MindsetA fixed mindset assumes that one's...

The concept of the looking-glass self describes how an individual's self-concept is shaped by their perception of how others see them. This psychological theory, first introduced by sociologist Charles Horton Cooley in 1902, posits that self-identity emerges in a social context and is influenced by the judgments—real or imagined—of others.Research suggests that individuals frequently overestimate how positively others perceive them. This is particularly evident in physical...