Long term course of ulcerative colitis in the prebiologic era. A retrospective study in a tertiary referral center

Several population-based studies have shown that long term prognosis of ulcerative colitis (UC) may be better than previously reported. The aim of this study was to evaluate the course of UC in a referral center cohort in the pre-biologic era and to identify possible prognostic factors.

All patients with established diagnosis of UC have been extracted from our GI Unit IBD Database. Clinical and demographic characteristics of all patients were recorded at the time of diagnosis. The disease course was retrospectively evaluated considering four primary end points: change in disease extension, need of corticosteroids, need of immunomodulators, and need of colectomy. The Kaplan-Meier survival method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of a course free of the outcome of interest.

Eight hundred and seven UC patients diagnosed between 1984 and 2008 have been included: 21.8% had proctitis, 47.6% had distal colitis and 30.6% had extensive colitis. The median follow up after diagnosis was 91 months (range 12-596). The probability of extension of proctitis within 10 years was 39.7%. In the whole cohort, the 10 years probability of receiving corticosteroids and immunomodulators was 46.7% and 12.4%, respectively. The 10-year probability of colectomy was 6.5%. Extensive colitis was associated with a higher probability of receiving corticosteroids, immunomodulators and surgery.

Long-term prognosis of UC is favourable for the majority of patients. Extensive colitis is the most relevant negative prognostic factor. Results from our referral center study are similar to that reported in population-based studies. Further studies are required to assess the possible impact of biologics and new treatment strategies on long term outcomes.