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Global rise in human infectious disease outbreaks
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|November 18, 2014
Summary
The global frequency and diversity of infectious disease outbreaks have significantly increased since 1980. Despite more reported outbreaks, per capita cases decreased when accounting for internet usage, suggesting improved surveillance and reporting.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Global Health
- Disease Ecology
Background:
- Infectious disease outbreaks pose a significant global health challenge.
- Understanding temporal trends in outbreak frequency and characteristics is crucial for public health preparedness.
- Previous analyses have been limited by data scope and duration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To characterize changes in the frequency and diversity of infectious disease outbreaks globally from 1980 to 2013.
- To examine trends in disease richness, diversity, and per capita cases.
- To investigate the influence of pathogen characteristics and reporting factors on outbreak trends.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a novel 33-year dataset (1980-2013) encompassing 12,102 outbreaks of 215 infectious diseases across 219 nations.
- Integration of outbreak data with ecological characteristics of causal pathogens.
- Statistical modeling controlling for surveillance, communication, geography, host availability, and internet usage.
Main Results:
- Significant increases observed in the total number, diversity, and richness of infectious disease outbreaks since 1980 (p < 0.0001).
- After controlling for internet usage (from 1990), outbreak numbers and disease richness continued to rise significantly (p < 0.0001).
- Per capita cases significantly decreased over time when internet usage was factored in (p = 0.005).
Conclusions:
- Global infectious disease outbreaks have become more frequent and diverse over the past three decades.
- Increased internet usage correlates with improved outbreak reporting, potentially explaining the decrease in per capita cases.
- Temporal trends vary based on pathogen type, host, and transmission mode, highlighting the complexity of disease emergence.
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