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Do Fertility Transitions Influence Infant Mortality Declines? Evidence from Early Modern Germany.

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Reductions in the number of siblings may have improved infant health historically. However, this study found no evidence that declining fertility led to increased infant survival in historical German populations.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Historical Epidemiology
  • Family Studies

Background:

  • Historical demographic transitions show links between fertility and infant mortality.
  • Reductions in sibship size (number of siblings) are hypothesized to improve infant health.
  • Empirical research on the sibship-infant mortality relationship is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causal effect of sibship size on infant mortality in historical populations.
  • To address methodological challenges and biases in previous empirical approaches.
  • To test the hypothesis that declining fertility improved infant survival.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a novel empirical approach to account for reverse causality.
  • Utilized extensive genealogical data from 13 German parishes.
  • Analyzed data spanning the 16th to 19th centuries.

Main Results:

  • The study's findings do not support the hypothesis that reduced sibship size improved infant survival.
  • No significant evidence was found linking declining fertility to increased infant survival probabilities.
  • The proposed methodology allows for robust testing of demographic relationships.

Conclusions:

  • The hypothesized link between declining fertility and improved infant survival via reduced sibship size is not supported by this historical German data.
  • Further research is needed to fully understand the complex interplay between family size and infant mortality.
  • Methodological advancements are crucial for accurately assessing historical demographic trends.