Related Experiment Video
Updated: Apr 20, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013.
Tim Brown1, Le Bao, Jeffrey W Eaton
1aResearch Program, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii bDepartment of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA cDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom dDepartment of Health Statistics and Information Systems, World Health Organization eUNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland fThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
The latest Estimation and Projection Package (EPP 2013) software has been updated to enhance HIV prevalence and incidence estimation. These improvements offer better epidemic understanding and support program planning.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Background:
- The Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) is crucial for estimating HIV burden.
- Accurate estimation of HIV prevalence and incidence is vital for effective public health interventions and policy development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe modifications in EPP 2013 aimed at improving HIV prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation.
- To enhance the accuracy of national and global HIV burden estimates.
Main Methods:
- Introduction of diverse incidence calculation models with selection guidance.
- Shift from maximum likelihood to Bayesian median for estimates.
- Integration of national surveys and improved antenatal clinic calibration.
- Adjustment of antiretroviral therapy data and enhanced mortality estimates for specific populations.
Main Results:
- Revised EPP 2013 models achieve closer fits to observed HIV prevalence trends.
- The updates reflect a better understanding of HIV epidemics and data.
Conclusions:
- EPP continues to evolve, utilizing existing and new data sources for improved HIV estimates.
- Adaptations enhance epidemic understanding and provide a robust foundation for program and policy planning.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
Prevalence and Incidence
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Introduction to Epidemiology
Bias in Epidemiological Studies
Statistical Software for Data Analysis and Clinical Trials

