Optometry services in Ontario: supply - and demand-side factors from 2011 to 2036

Optometric labour market projections are provided. First, population growth and ageing-based estimates of the rate of increase of eye-care services in Ontario from 2011 to 2$ are presented, holding the age-sex structure of utilization constant. Then, using data on the 2011 supply and working hours of Ontario's optometrists, the number of optometrists needed to keep the level of optometric services per age-sex-adjusted person comparable over time is estimated. The projections suggest that the number of Ontario optometrists should grow by approximately 30-40 full-time equivalents per year; to offset retirements and account for decreasing work hours, this suggests 77-90 new practitioners are required each year. However, in recent years, the number of Ontario optometrists has been growing faster than this, suggesting either that demand has exceeded supply and/or surpluses will accumulate if this trend continues.