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Developing a Generic Risk Assessment Simulation Modelling Software Tool for Assessing the Risk of Foot and Mouth
B Tameru1, B Gebremadhin1, T Habtemariam1
1Center for Computational Epidemiology, Bioinformatics and Risk Analysis (CCEBRA), College of Veterinary Medicine, Nursing and Allied Health, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, AL 36088. Fax : 334-724-4277 http://www.onemedicine.tuskegee.edu.
A new generic risk assessment tool helps U.S. decision-makers evaluate Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) risks from imported products. This software aids in preventing FMD virus introduction, protecting the agricultural industry.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Risk assessment modeling
- Agricultural biosecurity
Background:
- Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) poses a significant threat to global agriculture due to its high contagiousness in cloven-hoofed animals.
- Existing risk assessments for FMD prevention are often country- or product-specific, lacking broad applicability.
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) requires robust, science-based risk assessments to inform decisions on preventing FMD introduction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a user-friendly, generic risk assessment (RA) tool applicable to any country and product.
- To enable quantitative and qualitative scenario analysis for FMD virus introduction into the USA.
- To support informed decision-making for agricultural biosecurity measures.
Main Methods:
- Development of a software tool using Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0.
- Implementation of Monte Carlo simulation models with @Risk 6.1 Developer Kit and Best Fit Kit library.
- Data management using Microsoft Access 2000 and SQL for querying diverse input probability distributions.
Main Results:
- The tool allows for the examination of various quantitative/qualitative risk assessment scenarios.
- Outputs are provided in graphical formats and statistical values detailing the likelihood of FMD virus introduction.
- Sensitivity analysis identifies key input factors influencing total risk outputs.
Conclusions:
- The developed generic RA tool provides a flexible platform for assessing FMD risks.
- The software can be adapted for evaluating other animal diseases and products.
- This tool enhances the capability to prevent the introduction of FMD virus into the USA.
