A retrospective cohort study on the mortality of AIDS patients in Guangxi, China (2001-2011)

The purpose of this article is to describe mortality trends in different highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) periods and associated factors among AIDS patients in Guangxi, China. We prospectively analyzed AIDS patients in Guangxi between 2001 and 2011; demographic characteristics were compared among AIDS patients diagnosed in three treatment periods (pre-HAART: 2001-2004, early-HAART: 2005-2008, and late-HAART: 2009-2011). AIDS mortality was calculated by person-years, and treatment coverage was defined as the proportion of time that patients who were eligible for treatment received treatment. Factors of AIDS mortality were determined by a Cox proportional hazard regression. Of 19,020 AIDS patients, overall mortality declined from 41.1 per 100 person-years in 2001 to 13.3 per 100 person-years in 2011 with treatment coverage increasing from zero to 72.1%. The overall median survival figure was 5.6 years (95% CI: 4.4-6.8) with 60.3% for 5-year survival rate. After AIDS diagnosis, the mortality rate peaked in the first year, and 37.4% patients were still active in the ninth year. Protective factors for mortality were AIDS patients diagnosed from 2009 to 2011 (AHR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.89), having received HAART (AHR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.50-0.87), and having a CD4 count of higher than 350 cells/μl at AIDS diagnosis (AHR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.60-0.92). Risk factors for mortality included being male (AHR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.07-1.43), living in a rural area (AHR=1.40, 95% CI: 1.18-1.94), and being aged ≥60 years at AIDS diagnosis (AHR=1.36, 95% CI: 1.18-1.73). A decline in AIDS mortality was observed in Guangxi with a concomitant increase in treatment coverage. Some subpopulations of AIDS patients, such as males, rural residents, and the old, require more medical care.