Development of a prediction rule for estimating postoperative pulmonary complications

Patient- and procedure-related factors associated with postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) have changed over the last decade. Therefore, we sought to identify independent risk factors of PPCs and to develop a clinically applicable scoring system. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from 2,059 patients who received preoperative evaluations from respiratory physicians between June 2011 and October 2012. A new scoring system for estimating PPCs was developed using beta coefficients of the final multiple regression models. Of the 2,059 patients studied, 140 (6.8%) had PPCs. A multiple logistic regression model revealed seven independent risk factors (with scores in parentheses): age ≥70 years (2 points), current smoker (1 point), the presence of airflow limitation (1 point), American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥2 (1 point), serum albumin <4 g/dL (1 point), emergency surgery (2 points), and non-laparoscopic abdominal/cardiac/aortic aneurysm repair surgery (4 points). The area under the curve was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83) with the newly developed model. The new risk stratification including laparoscopic surgery has a good discriminative ability for estimating PPCs in our study cohort. Further research is needed to validate this new prediction rule.