Predicting re-involvement for children adopted out of a public child welfare system

Some of the approximately 400,000 children currently placed out-of-home in a public child welfare system will not reunify with their family of origin. They may instead be adopted into a new family. Adoption placements can be characterized by poor adjustment for children; some such placements even result in disruption or dissolution. We conducted a stratified Cox regression of 4,016 children from the Colorado public child welfare system. All of the children had a finalized adoption during the years 2002 through 2006. The two outcomes analyzed were new child protection and youth-in-conflict referrals and assessments for these previously adopted children. New child welfare referrals and assessments may be early indicators of poor adjustment for adopted children within the adoptive family. Study results indicate that older children and Hispanic children had higher rates of referral and assessment. Children with a pre-adoption history including longer time out-of-home or a larger number of out-of-home placements also experienced higher referral and assessment rates. Additional factors which predicted subsequent system re-involvement included presence of paid adoption assistance, adoption by a non-relative foster parent and younger adoptive parent age. Several study results were moderated by the presence or absence of an ethnic match between the child and the adoptive parents. We provide an overview of the statistical model used for analysis and we discuss implications of the study results for child welfare practice.