[Estimate of the needs in renal transplantation in Morocco]

Kidney transplantation is still underdeveloped in Morocco. In order to anticipate needs and discuss a possible reorganization of the provision of care, an estimate of the number of patients who would benefit from kidney transplant was conducted. This study was done in two steps. During the first step, based on the French renal replacement therapy registry (Rein), we develop a prediction score based on the likelihood of being treated by an autonomous dialysis (hemodialysis in self-care unit or peritoneal dialysis non-assisted by a nurse) and be registered on the national kidney transplant waiting list. During the second step, we apply this score to the data of the registry Magredial (Moroccan registry of renal replacement therapy, deployed in seven regions). Twelve parameters were related to autonomy and registration on the waiting list. Each of these parameters has been assigned a weight. Each patient was assigned a number of points, sum of different weights. By retaining a threshold of 21 points (80% specificity), 2260 subjects (57%) had a score less than or equal to this threshold in Magredial. With a number of patients on dialysis in Morocco estimated to 13,000 in late 2013, the estimated need for kidney transplant will be of 7410. This estimate should encourage professionals and health authorities of Morocco to engage more effort in the implementation of actions related to the transplant program.