Memoirs of a founding analyst

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 

Equity theory explains how our sense of fairness influences the dynamics of close relationships. Rooted in social psychology, the theory posits that individuals evaluate fairness by comparing the ratio of their contributions to the rewards they receive. Relationship satisfaction is highest when these ratios are perceived as balanced between partners, promoting mutual reciprocity and a sense of justice.Equity vs. Equality in RelationshipsEquity is distinct from equality. Fairness does not...

Overview

Autobiographical memory is a unique type of episodic memory that involves recollecting personal life experiences. It allows individuals to remember significant events from their past, creating a narrative of their lives. One interesting phenomenon related to autobiographical memory is the reminiscence bump. This effect refers to the tendency of adults to recall more events from their second and third decades of life — typically between ages 10 to 30 — than from other periods. This...

A flashbulb memory is a highly vivid and detailed memory, often linked to events of significant emotional impact. These memories stand out in contrast to everyday memories due to their clarity and the precision with which they are recalled. The strong emotions associated with the event act as a catalyst, ensuring that specific details, such as one's location, actions, and even peripheral elements, are etched into memory with remarkable accuracy. For example, many people can vividly recall...

The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...