Affective forecasting in schizophrenia: comparing predictions to real-time Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA)...

"Affective forecasting" refers to the predictions people make about future affective experiences. These predictions influence decision making, which in turn might impact individuals' level of functioning, goal-directed behavior, and pursuit of potentially rewarding activities. In the current study, we explored affective forecasting in people diagnosed with schizophrenia.

Twenty-four participants with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were asked to provide affective forecasts for an upcoming week. They were subsequently given a handheld mobile device that prompted them to complete "in-the-moment" positive affect (i.e., feeling active, excited, interested) and negative affect (i.e., jittery, scared, hostile, upset, guilty) ratings 6 times daily, over the next 7 days. Paired-sample t tests were used to compare forecasts to average weekly momentary ratings.

Participants expected more emotionally charged weeks than they actually experienced-both positive affect forecasts and negative affect forecasts were more intense than the average weekly ratings.

The findings of the study have implications for psychiatric rehabilitation; outlining the differences between consumer forecasts (e.g., excessively pessimistic predictions, unrealistic expectations) and actual experience can serve as a component of psychosocial interventions, including motivational interviewing, goal setting, thought challenging, and vocational rehabilitation. Mobile technologies can be incorporated for short-term data collection in the context of these rehabilitation efforts.