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Ocean acidification due to increased CO2 harms calcifying marine species. This study quantifies the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species under different emission scenarios, revealing significant impacts on marine ecosystems.

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Area of Science:

  • Marine Biology
  • Oceanography
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Rising atmospheric CO2 levels drive ocean acidification.
  • Ocean acidification increases calcium carbonate dissolution, impacting calcifying marine organisms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the effects of ocean acidification on calcifying species growth, reproduction, and survival.
  • To develop species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for estimating the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species.
  • To project the increase in PAF under different future climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Gathered peer-reviewed experimental data on calcifying species exposed to acidified seawater.
  • Derived species-specific median effective concentrations (pH50, pH10) using logistic regression.
  • Developed SSDs to calculate PAF and applied them to climate change scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Species growth was affected at higher pH levels than reproduction.
  • Variability in species sensitivity increased with the number of species included in PAF calculations.
  • Under a high CO2 scenario, PAF increased by 3-10% (pH50) and 21-32% (pH10).
  • Under a low CO2 scenario, PAF increased by 1-4% (pH50) and 7-12% (pH10).

Conclusions:

  • Ocean acidification poses a significant threat to calcifying marine species assemblages.
  • SSDs provide a valuable tool for assessing the ecological impacts of ocean acidification.
  • The developed SSDs can be used to compare the effects of ocean acidification with other environmental stressors.