Foot and mouth disease risk assessment in Mongolia--local expertise to support national policy

To address weaknesses in the current foot and mouth disease (FMD) control system and to inform the formulation of a national control strategy, Mongolia conducted two separate risk assessments, one for the Eastern region which in the past has seen re-current introductions of infection, and one for the Western region, where freedom from disease had been demonstrated over several years until FMD was re-introduced in 2013. The risk assessment was conducted in three stages: first local experts developed entry, exposure and consequence pathways during separate workshops in both regions, then data was collected, compiled and analysed, and finally, during a second workshop local experts provided risk estimations for both regions and identified recommendations for risk management. Risk estimates for each pathway were individually recorded, which ensured that views of all experts were equally represented in the risk estimation and which allowed assessing possible impact of different factors related to the background of participating local experts on risk estimates. Entry risk pathways with highest risk estimates were related to livestock movements and in the consequence assessment due to direct contacts. Uncertainty, for which disagreement between participants acted as a proxy, was high in entry pathways and in the assessment of effectiveness of control measures. The risk assessment was conducted with local experts who had no previous risk assessment experience. Through their involvement in the whole process however, they assumed a high level of ownership and despite lively discussions for some risk pathways, a high level of agreement was achieved and credible results were communicated to decision makers. Especially valuable were the derived recommendations. Through the risk assessment the local experts gained a thorough understanding of the FMD risk which resulted in sensible and realistic recommendations, which, if implemented, can lead to a sustainable strengthening of the Mongolian capacities to prevent, control and eradicate FMD. The process was underlined by extensive field data collection, which helped to address important data gaps and therefore to improve quality and reliability of findings. The Mongolian veterinary authority was very committed to the risk assessment and several recommendations have already been integrated in the revision of the national FMD strategy.