Analysis of actigraph parameters for relapse prediction in bipolar disorder: a feasibility study

The paper presents a framework for early identification of prodromal syndromes od mania or depression in bipolar disorder. The framework may mitigate relapses and improve patient functioning. The methodology consists of long-term actigraphy monitoring and simplified self-assessment tool to determine manic or depression events. Eight patients were involved in the feasibility study, spanning period of 150 months, resulting in 17 relapses and 3 hospitalizations in total. We concluded that the most promising parameter extracted from actigraphy recording is a circadian rhythm's interdaily stability. Using developed trend analysis applied on interdaily stability parameter, we achieved sensitivity and specificity about 65, resp. 68. We hypothesized that this performance is both mainly due to missing values in data and due to small amount of relapses.