Developing health care workforces for uncertain futures.

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Healthcare Management
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Conventional health care workforce planning methods are often unreliable due to future uncertainties.
• Existing approaches rely on current health system data, offering limited foresight.
• The global health landscape faces challenges like reforms, aging populations, and physician maldistribution.

Discussion:

• This paper advocates for a shift from traditional health care data to health care intelligence for planning.
• Health care intelligence involves understanding desired outcomes beyond mere numbers.
• New Zealand's Health Workforce initiative provides practical examples of this approach.

Key Insights:

• Workforce planning must adapt to uncertainty by embracing foresight and intelligence.
• Relying on health care intelligence enables more reliable planning and development.
• Understanding the 'why' behind health system needs is crucial for effective planning.

Outlook:

• New Zealand's experience offers a potential model for international health workforce planning.
• This approach can help health systems proactively address future challenges.
• Implementing health care intelligence can lead to more effective and needs-based workforce strategies.