Utility of concentration-effect modeling and simulation in a thorough QT study of losmapimod

A thorough QT study was conducted in healthy volunteers with losmapimod. Four treatment regimens were included: a therapeutic dose (7.5 mg BID for 5 days), a supratherapeutic dose (20 mg QD for 5 days), a positive control (400 mg moxifloxacin single dose on Day 5), and placebo for 5 days. Baseline and on treatment ECGs were measured on Day 1 (3 timepoints predose) and Day 5, respectively. The primary statistical analysis failed to demonstrate a lack of effect of losmapimod on the QT interval leading to a positive finding. However, simulations using the concentration-effect model established for QTcF vs. losmapimod concentration at concentrations 4× the maximum concentration of the therapeutic dose did not exceed the regulatory thresholds of concern of 5 milliseconds for the mean (4.57 milliseconds) and 10 milliseconds for the upper bound of the 90%CI (90%CI 2.88, 6.10). Modeling demonstrated that the discrepant results may have been due to a baseline shift after repeat dosing and baseline differences between the treatments. Considering the results of the concentration-effect modeling, previous losmapimod data, and the high false-positive rate associated with the ICH E14 statistical analysis, the statistical analysis was likely a false-positive.