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Assessing the risk of measles resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Belgium anno 2013

N Hens1, S Abrams, E Santermans

  • 1Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.

Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin
|January 24, 2015
PubMed

Insights

Measles outbreaks can still occur in highly vaccinated populations. A study in Belgium found that susceptible adolescents and young adults pose a risk for future measles resurgence.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Measles outbreaks persist in highly vaccinated European populations despite widespread measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination.
  • Previous measles outbreaks have been documented in France, the UK, and the Netherlands.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the potential for measles outbreaks in Belgium.
  • To model the effective reproduction number of measles in Belgium.
  • To identify vulnerable age groups for future measles outbreaks.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a multicohort model approach.
  • Incorporated spatial serological survey data.
  • Integrated measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage data and social contact patterns.

Main Results:

  • Effective reproduction numbers for measles in Belgium were found to be significantly higher than 1.
  • The predicted average effective reproduction number increased over a 30-year period.
  • Infants, adolescents, and young adults were identified as the most vulnerable groups for measles incidence.

Conclusions:

  • Belgium faces a likelihood of measles outbreaks upon reintroduction, particularly during school terms.
  • Increasing proportions of susceptible adolescents and young adults contribute to measles resurgence risk.
  • Infants represent a critical vulnerable population during potential future measles outbreaks.

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