Extinction can be estimated from moderately sized molecular phylogenies.

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary Biology
• Phylogenetics
• Computational Biology

Background:

• Estimating speciation and extinction rates from phylogenies of extant species is a common practice.
• Previous research suggested that variable birth rates can lead to unreliable extinction fraction estimates, implying phylogenies alone are insufficient.
• This has led to a general assumption that extinction dynamics cannot be reliably inferred from molecular phylogenies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To reevaluate and extend the analyses of Rabosky (2010) regarding extinction rate estimation from phylogenies.
• To demonstrate that extinction can be estimated from molecular phylogenies, even with model violations.
• To address the assumption that variable diversification rates preclude extinction estimation.

Main Methods:

• Reevaluation and extension of analyses presented in Rabosky (2010).
• Investigating the impact of heritable variation in diversification rate on phylogenetic inference.
• Utilizing birth-death models while accounting for specific model violations.

Main Results:

• Contrary to previous assumptions, extinction can be estimated from molecular phylogenies.
• Heritable variation in diversification rate does not necessarily prevent accurate extinction estimation.
• The study provides evidence that phylogenies hold valuable information about extinction dynamics.

Conclusions:

• It is possible to estimate extinction rates from molecular phylogenies, even when birth rates vary.
• The findings challenge the notion that extinction dynamics are unknowable from phylogenetic data alone.
• Researchers should exercise caution but not abandon the use of phylogenies for extinction studies.