A nomogram that predicts pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation also predicts survival outcomes...

Pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is associated with improved outcomes. We evaluated whether a nomogram designed to predict who would have a pCR after trimodality therapy could also predict outcome after definitive chemoradiation.

Patients in this retrospective, single-institution analysis had received chemoradiation without surgery for esophageal cancer from 1998 through 2010; 333 such patients had complete information on all variables required for the pCR nomogram: sex; T status (by endoscopic sonography); tumor grade; tumor avidity on positron emission tomography (PET); and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD)-directed biopsy results after chemoradiation. We used multivariate Cox regression to test potential associations between clinical outcomes [overall survival (OS), locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis] and patient or treatment factors and the pCR nomogram score; the component variables of the nomogram were not reintroduced into the multivariate analysis.

The median follow-up time for all patients (median age 66 years) was 18.2 months (30.7 months for those alive at the time of analysis). Patients with nomogram scores ≤125 (median for all patients) had significantly worse outcomes than patients with scores >125: median OS time 19.7 vs. 48.2 months; disease-free survival (DFS) time 6.1 vs. 31.1 months; locoregional failure-free survival time 17.7 months vs. not reached; and distant metastasis-free survival time 11.7 months vs. not reached (all P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that nomogram score independently predicted each survival outcome, along with other patient and disease factors.

The pCR nomogram score predicted survival outcomes in patients receiving definitive chemoradiation for esophageal cancer. Although this nomogram requires further validation, it may prove useful for stratifying patients for clinical trials designed to intensify treatments for patients at the highest risk of relapse.