Predictors of difficulty in carrying out basic activities of daily living among the old-old: A 2-year community-based...

To present practical predictors for the difficulty of carrying out basic activities of daily living (ADL) among the old-old during a 2-year period.

Assessment was carried out using data obtained from the Tosa Longitudinal Aging Study, a community-based cohort survey on geriatric functions in the elderly. Predictor variables measured at baseline included age; sex; height; weight; blood pressure; oxygen saturation; neurobehavioral functions, such as Mini-Mental State Examination, Kohs Block Design test, Timed Up and Go test, button score, functional reach test, geriatric depression scale, cardio-ankle vascular index, ankle brachial pressure index; and blood chemical results, such as hemoglobin, fasting blood sugar, hemoglobin A1c, serum lipids, serum albumin and serum creatinine. The outcome variable was the presence of difficulties while carrying out basic ADL after 2 years.

Age of ≥85 years, Timed Up and Go test of ≥15 s, button score of >17 s and presence of knee pain were independent predictors of difficulty in carrying out basic ADL after 2 years. Elderly individuals who have had at least two positive findings out of these four variables were likely to have impaired basic ADL during a 2-year period with a positive predictive value of 52.0%, negative predictive value of 90.2%, sensitivity of 70.3% and specificity of 80.8%.

Assessment of age, Timed Up and Go test, manual dexterity, and presence of knee pain is a useful and relevant way to identify patients who should be informed about their likelihood of developing difficulties in carrying out basic ADL.