Number Needed To… $ave?

The 'Number Needed to Treat' (NNT) is a useful measure for estimating the number of patients that would need to receive a therapeutic intervention to avoid one of the adverse events that the treatment is designed to prevent. We explored the possibility of an adaption of NNT to estimate the 'Number Needed to $ave' (NN$) as a new, conceptual systems metric to estimate potential cost-savings to the health system from implementation of a treatment, or in this case, a program. We used the outcomes of the INSPIRED COPD Outreach ProgramTM to calculate that 26 patients would need to complete the program to avoid healthcare expenditures of $100,000, based on hospital bed days avoided. The NN$ does not translate into 'cost savings' per se, but redirection of resource expenditures for other purposes. We propose that the NN$ metric, if further developed, could help to inform system-level resource allocation decisions in a manner similar to the way that the NNT metric helps to inform individual-level treatment decisions.