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Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015
Jean-Paul Chretien1, Assaf Anyamba2, Jennifer Small2
1Division of Integrated Biosurveillance, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA.
Plos Currents
|February 17, 2015
Summary
A weak El Niño event in 2014-2015 increased infectious disease risks globally. Public health officials should enhance surveillance in predicted hotspots to mitigate impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate pattern influencing infectious disease risk through extreme weather events.
- The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitored a potential El Niño event from summer 2014 through spring 2015.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify regions at higher risk of infectious disease transmission due to predicted El Niño conditions.
- To assess the potential impact of El Niño on global public health.
Main Methods:
- Utilized El Niño indicators: Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and rainfall anomalies.
- Conducted a literature review to establish associations between El Niño and infectious diseases.
- Identified geographic regions with environmental conditions conducive to disease transmission.
Main Results:
- Anomalously elevated SSTs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans indicated a weak El Niño development.
- Observed global precipitation anomalies, including drier conditions in Indonesia and wetter conditions in parts of Asia and Africa.
- Identified potential increases in diseases like cholera, dengue, malaria, and Rift Valley fever in specific regions.
Conclusions:
- Weak El Niño conditions posed significant public health risks during winter 2014-spring 2015.
- Enhanced surveillance and preparedness in identified hotspots are crucial for mitigating health impacts.
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