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Evidence for risk estimate precision: implications for individual risk communication
Grant T Harris1, Christopher T Lowenkamp, N Zoe Hilton
1Department of Psychology, Queen's University, Kingston; and Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, ON, Canada.
Behavioral Sciences & the Law
|February 20, 2015
Summary
Actuarial risk assessment tools accurately predict recidivism. Sufficient sample sizes improve the precision of individual risk estimates, aiding correctional policy and resource allocation.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Forensic Psychology
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Actuarial risk assessment instruments effectively discriminate between offenders who will reoffend and those who will not.
- These tools utilize individual-level predictors like age, criminal history, and psychopathy.
- While relative risk is informative for policy, the precision of absolute risk for individuals has been difficult to establish.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the relationship between sample size and the precision of actuarial risk estimates.
- To investigate the precision of individual risk estimates using the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) tool.
- To clarify the implications of absolute risk for communicating offender risk levels.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of actuarial risk estimate precision across varying sample sizes.
- Utilized the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) tool.
- Included large samples of up to 26,642 offenders.
Main Results:
- The precision of individual actuarial risk estimates improves significantly with sufficient sample size.
- Demonstrated that precise individual risk estimates are achievable in large offender samples.
- Highlighted the importance of sample size in validating risk assessment tools.
Conclusions:
- Sufficient sample size is crucial for achieving precise individual risk estimates in actuarial assessments.
- The communication of individual offender risk should focus on informing policy by matching cases to aggregate data.
- This risk communication function is separate from individual needs assessment and treatment planning.
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