Inferring regional-scale species diversity from small-plot censuses

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Biodiversity Science
• Statistical Ecology

Background:

• Estimating species richness across large spatial scales is a significant ecological challenge.
• Accurate species counts are crucial for biodiversity conservation and ecological understanding.
• Previous methods often struggle with extrapolating data from small plots to vast areas.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate an inference procedure for up-scaling species richness.
• To estimate the total number of arthropod and tree species in Panama using a novel approach.
• To assess the accuracy of the method by comparing its predictions with existing data.

Main Methods:

• Applied an inference procedure to a comprehensive census of tropical arthropods and trees in Panama.
• Validated the method by accurately predicting species abundance distributions, including the rare species tail.
• Used data from small census plots (0.04 ha) to upscale richness estimates.

Main Results:

• The method accurately captured the rare tail of species abundance distributions for trees and arthropods.
• Estimated arthropod species richness in a 6000 ha reserve was approximately double previous estimates.
• Inferred tree species richness for Panama aligned with accepted estimates, while arthropod richness was lower than a criticized prior estimate.

Conclusions:

• The developed inference procedure provides a reliable method for estimating species richness at large spatial scales.
• The findings suggest a significant underestimation of arthropod diversity in Panama.
• The study proposes extending this procedure for continental-scale species richness estimation.