Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Immunology
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Pertussis (whooping cough) remains a significant public health concern.
• Resurgence observed in vaccinated populations, especially adolescents and adults, despite mass vaccination efforts.
• Existing knowledge on infection, disease, and immunity is incomplete.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review mathematical models used to study pertussis epidemiology.
• To evaluate model suitability for informing optimal pertussis vaccine scheduling.
• To identify limitations and suggest improvements for future modeling.

Main Methods:

• Systematic review of mathematical models investigating pertussis epidemiology.
• Critical analysis of model structures, assumptions, and data used for parameterization.
• Evaluation of model-based predictions for vaccination strategies.

Main Results:

• Models show potential for predicting pertussis spread and vaccine impact.
• Key limitations identified include lack of contemporary population data and poor understanding of infection-disease relationship.
• Model conclusions are sensitive to structural assumptions and data quality.

Conclusions:

• Mathematical models are valuable tools for pertussis control strategy development.
• Future model development needs improved parameterization with relevant data.
• Enhanced understanding of infection-to-disease dynamics is crucial for robust model outputs.
• Recommendations provided for data collection to improve model accuracy and reduce uncertainty.