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Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES
K Arnbjerg-Nielsen1, S G Funder2, H Madsen2
1Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Lyngby DK-2800, Denmark
Summary
This study identifies climate analogues for Denmark to project future precipitation extremes. Extreme rainfall is projected to increase by 9% for 2-year and 21% for 10-year return periods by 2100.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Environmental Science
- Urban Hydrology
Background:
- Climate analogues, or Space-For-Time, identify regions with similar climatic conditions across different times.
- Understanding future climate impacts is crucial for infrastructure design, such as urban drainage systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess climate analogues for Denmark using current and future climate data.
- To project future precipitation extremes for Denmark by the year 2100.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the E-OBS dataset for current climate observations.
- Employed the ENSEMBLES database for future climate projections.
- Analyzed precipitation extremes using intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design.
Main Results:
- Projected increases in extreme precipitation by 2100: 9% for 2-year return periods and 21% for 10-year return periods.
- Identified coastal Northern France as the most suitable analogue region for Denmark's future climate.
Conclusions:
- Future climate change is expected to intensify precipitation extremes in Denmark.
- Limited data on present precipitation extremes in Northern France necessitates cautious interpretation of results.
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