Age-Period-Cohort approaches to back-calculation of cancer incidence rate
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Updated: Apr 16, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Cheongeun Oh1, Theodore R Holford
1Biostatistics, Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, 10016, U.S.A.
Abstract:
A compartment model for cancer incidence and mortality is developed in which healthy subjects may develop cancer and subsequently die of cancer or another cause. In order to adequately represent the experience of a defined population, it is also necessary to allow for subjects who are diagnosed at death, as well as subjects who migrate and are subsequently lost to follow-up. Expressions are derived for the number of cancer deaths as a function of the number of incidence cases and vice versa, which allows for the use of mortality statistics to obtain estimates of incidence using survival information. In addition, the model can be used to obtain estimates of cancer prevalence, which is useful for health care planning. The method is illustrated using data on lung cancer among males in Connecticut.
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