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Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.
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Population dynamics can be described mathematically by considering the population size P(t) as a function of time. The rate of change of the population is then represented by the derivative of P(t). A simple assumption is that the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population itself. This leads to an exponential growth model, where the population increases rapidly without bound. While this is a useful first approximation, it does not reflect realistic long-term...
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Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Biology
  • Biogeography

Background:

  • The realized niche defines environments where populations persist with competitors, correlating with positive intrinsic growth rates (r).
  • Quantitative links between range-wide demographics and occurrence probability are crucial for understanding species niches and improving distribution models.
  • Previous research has not extensively assessed how demographic parameters influence species occurrence probability across diverse regions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the relationship between demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r, carrying capacity K), population density (N), and occurrence probability (Pocc).
  • To investigate if these relationships vary based on species' competitive ability, using shade tolerance as a proxy.
  • To assess the influence of demographic factors on species' realized niches and geographic distributions.

Main Methods:

  • Estimated demographic parameters (r, K), population density (N), and occurrence probability (Pocc) for 108 tree species.
  • Utilized data from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France, Switzerland).
  • Employed shade tolerance as an indicator of competitive ability in forest environments.

Main Results:

  • Demographic parameter relationships with occurrence probability showed little variation across shade tolerance levels and regions.
  • Intrinsic growth rate (r) was generally negatively correlated with occurrence probability (Pocc).
  • Population density (N) and carrying capacity (K) were generally positively correlated with occurrence probability (Pocc).

Conclusions:

  • Temperate forest trees exhibit highest occurrence probability in areas with high population density and slow intrinsic growth rates.
  • Species' competitive ability (shade tolerance) did not significantly alter the observed demographic-occurrence relationships.
  • Uncertainty in demographic estimations necessitates caution when integrating species distribution and demographic models.