A nomogram to predict brain metastasis as the first relapse in curatively resected non-small cell lung cancer...

Development of brain metastasis results in a significant reduction in overall survival. However, there is no an effective tool to predict brain metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We conducted this study to develop a feasible nomogram that can predict metastasis to the brain as the first relapse site in patients with curatively resected NSCLC.

A retrospective review of NSCLC patients who had received curative surgery at National Cancer Center (Goyang, South Korea) between 2001 and 2008 was performed. We chose metastasis to the brain as the first relapse site after curative surgery as the primary endpoint of the study. A nomogram was modeled using logistic regression.

Among 1218 patients, brain metastasis as the first relapse developed in 87 patients (7.14%) during the median follow-up of 43.6 months. Occurrence rates of brain metastasis were higher in patients with adenocarcinoma or those with a high pT and pN stage. Younger age appeared to be associated with brain metastasis, but this result was not statistically significant. The final prediction model included histology, smoking status, pT stage, and the interaction between adenocarcinoma and pN stage. The model showed fairly good discriminatory ability with a C-statistic of 69.3% and 69.8% for predicting brain metastasis within 2 years and 5 years, respectively. Internal validation using 2000 bootstrap samples resulted in C-statistics of 67.0% and 67.4% which still indicated good discriminatory performances.

The nomogram presented here provides the individual risk estimate of developing metastasis to the brain as the first relapse site in patients with NSCLC who have undergone curative surgery. Surveillance programs or preventive treatment strategies for brain metastasis could be established based on this nomogram.