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Online accesses to medical research articles on publication predicted citations up to 15 years later
1Division of Clinical Epidemiology, University Hospitals of Geneva, 6 Rue Gabrielle-Perret-Gentil, Geneva CH-1211, Switzerland and Department of Community Health and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva.
Objectives:
To examine whether the number of early online accesses to medical research articles predicts citations in the scientific literature over time.
Study Design And Setting:
Cohort study of research articles published in the BMJ between January and June 1999. The number of online assesses within 1 week of publication was examined in relation to citation counts in 1999-2004, 2004-2009, and 2009-2014.
Results:
The 148 included articles were accessed on average 691 times up publication, and each was cited on average 33 times in 1999-2004, 32 times in 2004-2009, and 26 times in 2009-2014. The logarithm of accesses predicted the logarithm of citations for all three subsequent periods, but the association weakened over time (correlation with citations in 1999-2004: 0.54, 2004-2009: 0.49, 2009-2014: 0.39; all P < 0.001). In addition to online accesses, the presence of an abstract also predicted more citations for all periods.
Conclusion:
Early interest in a medical research article, reflected by online accesses within a week of publication, predicts citations up to 15 years later. This strengthens the validity of online usage as a measure of the scientific merit of publications.
