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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 16, 2026

The Resident-intruder Paradigm: A Standardized Test for Aggression, Violence and Social Stress
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Decomposing the effect of crime on population changes.

Andrew Foote1

  • 1Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, CA, 95616, USA, afoote@ucdavis.edu.

Demography
|March 11, 2015
PubMed
Summary

Crime significantly impacts migration, with white households showing a stronger tendency to relocate from high-crime counties compared to black households. This study offers precise migration data for better analysis.

Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Urban Studies
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Previous studies on crime and migration often relied on less precise data.
  • Understanding the nuances of population shifts in response to crime is crucial for urban planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the effect of crime on migration rates in U.S. metropolitan counties.
  • To decompose net population changes into gross migration flows to analyze individual responses to crime.
  • To identify crime's impact using county-level trends and deviations from trends.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized administrative data on inter-county migration flows for enhanced precision.
  • Decomposed net migration into gross flows to differentiate origins and destinations.
  • Incorporated county-level time trends to isolate exogenous crime shocks.

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Main Results:

  • Estimated crime's effect on migration is substantially smaller than previously reported.
  • Long-run effects are larger but still considerably smaller than prominent estimates.
  • Disparities in response observed: white households exhibit a migration response nearly 10 times larger than black households to crime increases.

Conclusions:

  • Crime has a measurable but smaller impact on migration than previously thought.
  • Migration responses to crime vary significantly across demographic subgroups.
  • Policy implications for urban areas should consider differential impacts on various racial groups.