Study on the calculation models of bus delay at bays using queueing theory and Markov chain

Area of Science:

• Transportation Engineering
• Operations Research

Background:

• Traffic congestion at bus bays critically reduces public transit service efficiency in China.
• Existing research lacks theoretical models for computing bus bay efficiency.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop calculation models for bus delay at bays.
• To provide a basis for evaluating bus bay efficiency.

Main Methods:

• Analyzing bus delay processes into entering and exiting delay.
• Formulating queueing models using embedded Markov chains for entering delay.
• Applying queueing and gap acceptance theories for exiting delay.

Main Results:

• Derived calculation models for entering and exiting bus bay delays.
• Validated models with field-measured data.
• Identified influencing factors on bus bay delays.

Conclusions:

• The developed models enable easy assessment of bus bay delays based on traffic volume and dwell time characteristics.
• This research offers a foundation for improving public transit efficiency evaluations.