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Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.
Yanluan Lin1, Ming Zhao2, Minghua Zhang3
1Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Tropical cyclone rainfall intensity will increase with rising sea surface temperatures (SST). However, the rainfall area is mainly controlled by relative SST, suggesting cyclone size won't change significantly in a warmer climate.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric science
- Climate science
- Meteorology
Background:
- Tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in a warming climate.
- The impact of tropical cyclones on human lives is influenced by their area coverage, but future changes in rainfall area are poorly understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the factors controlling tropical cyclone rainfall area.
- To project how tropical cyclone rainfall area may change in a warmer climate.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of satellite data.
- Global atmospheric model simulations.
Main Results:
- Tropical cyclone rainfall area is primarily controlled by the environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (relative SST).
- Rainfall rate increases with absolute SST.
- Global tropical cyclone rainfall area is not expected to change significantly with uniform SST increases, with higher rainfall rates confined to similar-sized areas.
Conclusions:
- Increases in tropical cyclone rainfall in a warmer climate are likely to be more intense but within similar area coverage.
- Understanding the interplay between relative SST and absolute SST is crucial for predicting future tropical cyclone impacts.
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