Using hydrological simulation to detect human-disturbed epoch in runoff series

Area of Science:

• Hydrology
• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Studies

Background:

• River runoff in China has shown a decreasing trend in recent decades.
• This decline is attributed to both climate change and increasing human activities.
• River basin managers require methods to detect non-stationaries in runoff data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a rainfall runoff model-based approach for identifying human-disturbed periods in river discharge time series.
• To pinpoint the onset of anthropogenic influence on the Kuye River discharge.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the SimHyd model for simulating monthly natural discharges.
• Applied a rainfall runoff model-based method to detect human influence on the Kuye River catchment data.
• Analyzed discharge data from upstream and downstream stations.

Main Results:

• The SimHyd model demonstrated good performance in simulating monthly natural discharges.
• The analysis indicated that discernible human influence on the Kuye River began around 1980.
• Anthropogenic effects were detected earlier at downstream stations compared to upstream stations.

Conclusions:

• The applied method effectively identifies human-disturbed periods in river runoff time series.
• The findings suggest that human activities significantly impacted the Kuye River discharge starting in 1980.
• The earlier detection of human influence downstream aligns with the implementation of soil and water conservation measures.