Development and validation of a new scoring system to predict wound healing after endovascular therapy in critical...

To develop a scoring system to predict wound healing in critical limb ischemia (CLI) patients treated with endovascular therapy (EVT).

Between July 2007 and January 2013, 184 patients (118 men; mean age 73.0 years) with CLI (217 limbs) and tissue loss underwent EVT. From this cohort 236 separate wounds were divided into development (n = 118) and validation (n = 118) groups. Predictors of wound healing were identified using multivariable analysis. Each predictor was assigned a score based on its regression coefficient, and total scores were calculated, ranging from 0 to 1 for low risk up to ≥ 4 for high risk of a nonhealing wound. The performance of the scoring system in the prediction of wound healing was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

By multivariable analysis, a University of Texas grade ≥ 2 (HR 0.524, 95% CI 0.288-0.951, p = 0.034), an infected wound (HR 0.497, 95% CI 0.276-0.894, p = 0.020), dependence on hemodialysis (HR 0.459, 95% CI 0.259-0.814, p = 0.008), no visible blood flow to the wound (HR 0.343, 95% CI 0.146-0.802, p = 0.014), and major tissue loss (HR 0.322, 95% CI 0.165-0.630, p = 0.001) predicted a non-healing wound. The 1-year rates of wound healing in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 94.6%, 67.6%, and 9.1%, respectively, in the development group (p < 0.001) and 92.3%, 70.5%, and 31.3%, respectively, in the validation sample (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.922 in the development group and 0.808 in the validation sample.

This scoring system reliably predicts wound healing in CLI patients after endovascular revascularization and is potentially helpful in deciding if additional adjuncts or revascularization should be considered.