Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Marine ecology
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Species' long-term survival hinges on adaptive potential to global change.
• Most studies assess adaptive variation in single environments, potentially underestimating evolutionary capacity.
• Climate change is multivariate, necessitating a multivariate genetic approach for accurate assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the evolutionary capacity of Galeolaria caespitosa larvae to adapt to warmer ocean temperatures.
• To determine if a multivariate genetic analysis alters conclusions about adaptive potential compared to univariate analyses.
• To highlight the importance of multivariate approaches in predicting species' responses to climate change.

Main Methods:

• Quantitative genetics design analyzing larval survival across three temperatures.
• Assessment of over 30,000 embryos from 204 unique families.
• Multivariate analysis of genetic variances and covariances in thermal tolerance.

Main Results:

• Adaptive genetic variation for survival was found at cooler temperatures but not the warmest.
• Univariate analysis suggested limited adaptive potential at the highest temperature.
• Multivariate analysis revealed potential for evolution at the warmest temperature through correlated selection responses.

Conclusions:

• A multivariate perspective is crucial for accurately estimating a species' adaptive potential to global change.
• Galeolaria caespitosa larvae may possess greater evolutionary capacity to cope with warming than previously indicated.
• Future research on climate change adaptation must adopt multivariate quantitative genetic methods.