Changes in serum alpha fetoprotein in patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma following hepatectomy

To study the change in serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) of patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative resection and to analyze its effect on the survival.

We prospectively collected 981 consecutive patients with post-resectional recurrent HCC between 2005 and 2010 at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital. According to the change of AFP from the initial stage to recurrent stage, the patients were divided into stable-L (20 ng/mL to 20 ng/mL, n = 296), stable-M (20-400 ng/mL to 20-400 ng/mL, n = 102), stable-H (400 ng/mL to 400 ng/mL, n = 212), decreasing (n = 287), and increasing (n = 84) groups. The overall survival (OS) and recurrence to death survival (RTDS) were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was performed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

The stable-H/increasing and stable-L/decreasing groups had the lowest and highest 5-year OS and RTDS rates (10.8%/18.8% vs 56.3%/55.0%; 3.4%/5.1% vs 37.7%/33.2%; both P < 0.001), while the stable-M group had the lower rates, which were 29.8% and 23.6% (for OS and RTDS: vs stable-L, P < 0.001 and 0.002; vs deceasing, P = 0.001 and 0.012; vs increasing, P = 0.113 and 0.011; vs stable-H, both P < 0.001). Cox regression analysis showed that AFP inconsistency was an independent factor affecting RTDS (decreasing vs stable-L, hazard ratio: 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.54, P = 0.575; increasing vs stable-L, 2.93, 2.06-4.16, P < 0.001).

The AFP inconsistency was an important prognostic factor for recurrent HCC.