Does diabetes prevention pay for itself? Evaluation of the M.O.B.I.L.I.S. program for obese persons

In response to the growing burden of obesity, public primary prevention programs against obesity have been widely recommended. Several studies have estimated the cost-effectiveness of diabetes-prevention trials for different countries. Nevertheless, it is still controversial if prevention conducted in more real-world settings and among people with increased risk but not yet exhibiting increased glucose tolerance can be a cost-saving strategy to cope with the obesity epidemic. We examine this question in a simulation model based on the results of the M.O.B.I.L.I.S program, a German lifestyle intervention to reduce obesity, which is directed on the high-risk group of people who are already obese. The contribution of this paper is the use of 4-year follow-up data on the intervention group and a comparison with a control group formed by SOEP respondents as inputs in a Markov model of the long-term cost savings through this intervention due to the prevention of type 2 diabetes. We show that from the point of view of a health insurer, these programs can pay for themselves.