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Overdiagnosis: epidemiologic concepts and estimation.

Jong-Myon Bae1

  • 1Department of Preventive Medicine, Jeju National University School of Medicine, Jeju, Korea.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer, the detection of cancers that would not otherwise be found, is a growing concern in South Korea. This study reviews methods to estimate its prevalence, drawing parallels with screening mammography trials.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The incidence of thyroid cancer has rapidly increased in South Korea.
  • Overdiagnosis, defined as detecting cancers that would not have been found without screening, is a potential consequence of cancer screening programs.
  • It can manifest as lead bias from indolent cancers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the prevalence of overdiagnosis in thyroid cancer screening in South Korea.
  • To adapt methodologies used in quantifying overdiagnosis from screening mammography.
  • To address the epidemiological implications of rising thyroid cancer incidence.

Main Methods:

  • Reviewing previous trials that quantified overdiagnosis in screening mammography.
  • Examining epidemiological indicators such as lack of compensatory incidence drops post-screening.
  • Analyzing discrepancies between cancer incidence and mortality rates.

Main Results:

  • The study establishes a framework for estimating overdiagnosis by reviewing established methodologies.
  • It highlights the need for indirect estimation due to the nature of overdiagnosis as an epidemiological concept.
  • Data from mammography screening trials provide a basis for comparison and adaptation.

Conclusions:

  • Estimating thyroid cancer overdiagnosis in South Korea requires indirect epidemiological approaches.
  • Methodologies from screening mammography trials can inform the assessment of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis.
  • Understanding and quantifying overdiagnosis is crucial for evaluating the net benefit of cancer screening programs.