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A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics
Karsten Hempel1, David J D Earn2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1 hempelkr@math.mcmaster.ca.
Abstract:
Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.
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