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Demographic conditions responsible for population aging.

S H Preston1, C Himes, M Eggers

  • 1Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104-6298.

Demography
|November 1, 1989
PubMed
Summary

Population aging is driven by low birth and death rates, and historical changes in mortality and migration. Declining mortality is a key factor in current population aging trends globally.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Gerontology

Background:

  • Population aging is a significant global demographic trend.
  • Understanding the drivers of population aging is crucial for policy-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply novel expressions for quantifying population aging rates.
  • To analyze the relationship between aging and demographic factors like birth rates, death rates, mortality, and migration.

Main Methods:

  • Development of two distinct mathematical expressions for the rate of population mean age change.
  • Application of these expressions to demographic data from the United States, the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden.
  • Integration of the two expressions through the concept of covariance between age and age-specific growth rates.

Main Results:

  • Population aging is negatively associated with contemporary birth and death rates, indicating aging occurs when vital rates are low.
  • Historical declines in mortality are identified as the primary driver of current population aging in the US and Sweden.
  • Migration also plays a significant role in population aging, with varying impacts across countries.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding population aging by integrating contemporary vital rates and demographic history.
  • The findings highlight the complex interplay of mortality, migration, and vital rates in shaping population age structures.
  • The research offers valuable insights for demographic analysis and forecasting related to population aging.

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