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The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
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Recessions, healthy no more?

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Total mortality is no longer strongly linked to economic cycles, unlike cardiovascular disease and transport accidents. Cancer and external cause deaths, including accidental poisonings, now show countercyclical trends.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Economic downturns historically correlated with mortality rates.
  • Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality is crucial for public health policy.
  • Previous studies often used shorter time frames, potentially masking long-term trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the evolving relationship between macroeconomic conditions and total mortality over a long period (1976-2010).
  • To identify specific causes of death that have shifted in their cyclical patterns.
  • To assess the impact of analysis period length on the measurement of mortality-economy associations.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of mortality data from 1976-2010.
  • Correlation analysis between total mortality and macroeconomic indicators.
  • Stratification of mortality by cause of death (cardiovascular, transport accidents, cancer, external causes).
  • Comparison of results using different analysis period lengths.

Main Results:

  • Total mortality shifted from strongly procyclical to weakly or unrelated to economic conditions over the study period.
  • Cardiovascular disease and transport accident deaths remain procyclical.
  • Cancer mortality and external causes of death exhibit emerging countercyclical patterns.
  • Non-transport accidents, especially accidental poisonings, significantly contribute to the countercyclical trend in external causes.

Conclusions:

  • The association between total mortality and economic cycles is dynamic and has weakened over time.
  • Shorter analysis periods (<15 years) may lead to inaccurate assessments of this relationship.
  • Shifting patterns in cancer and external cause mortality, particularly poisonings, warrant further investigation and targeted public health interventions.