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Updated: Apr 15, 2026

Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
Stage II colon cancer.
David N Church1, Rachel Midgley2, David J Kerr3
1Oxford Cancer Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with T3 primary tumors and microsatellite instability (MSI) have an excellent prognosis and do not need adjuvant chemotherapy. Gene expression recurrence scores help identify patients who benefit from 5-fluorouracil (FU) chemotherapy.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Gastroenterology
- Cancer Biomarkers
Background:
- Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer worldwide, with Stage II representing approximately 25% of cases.
- Stage II CRC, characterized by local tumor invasion without lymph node or distant metastasis, exhibits significant biological and prognostic heterogeneity.
- Current adjuvant 5-fluorouracil (FU) chemotherapy offers a modest 3-4% reduction in recurrence risk for Stage II CRC, benefiting only a subset of patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify reliable biomarkers for predicting adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in Stage II colorectal cancer.
- To differentiate patient subgroups within Stage II CRC based on prognosis and treatment response.
- To refine treatment decisions for Stage II CRC by integrating molecular and clinical data.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of clinicopathological features, including tumor stage (T3) and microsatellite instability (MSI) status.
- Evaluation of gene expression profiles to derive a validated recurrence score.
- Comparison of prognostic information provided by molecular biomarkers versus conventional features.
Main Results:
- Patients with T3 primary tumors and high microsatellite instability (MSI-High) demonstrate an excellent prognosis, negating the need for adjuvant chemotherapy.
- For microsatellite-stable (MSS) Stage II CRC, a recurrence score derived from gene expression provides superior prognostic accuracy compared to traditional clinicopathological factors.
- The recurrence score effectively stratifies patients, aiding in the selection of those likely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.
Conclusions:
- Microsatellite instability testing is crucial for identifying Stage II CRC patients who can safely forgo adjuvant chemotherapy.
- Gene expression-based recurrence scores offer a more precise tool for personalizing adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in Stage II CRC.
- Integrating MSI status and recurrence scores optimizes treatment strategies, improving outcomes and avoiding unnecessary toxicity in Stage II colorectal cancer.
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