Driving forces of heavy metal changes in agricultural soils in a typical manufacturing center

Heavy metal concentrations in 2002 and 2012 in agricultural soils in Dongguan, a manufacturing center in southern China, were analyzed to determine the impact of rapid economic development on soil pollution. The level of pollution was assessed using the Nemerow synthetic pollution index (NPI), and its changing characteristics and driving forces were analyzed using multivariate statistical and geostatistical methods. The results indicate that the mean NPI was 0.79 in 2002 and 0.84 in 2012, which indicates aggravated heavy metal contamination in the agricultural soils. The concentrations of Cd and Zn increased 54.7 and 20.8 %, respectively, whereas Hg and Pb decreased 35.3 and 24.5 %, respectively. Cr, As, Cu, and Ni remained relatively stable. The Hg and Cd concentrations were highly correlated with soil types (P < 0.01), the secondary industrial output per unit of land (P < 0.01), proportion of cereal fields (P < 0.01), proportion of vegetable fields (P < 0.01), population density (P < 0.05), and road density (P < 0.05). The Pb and As concentrations were greatly influenced by soil types (P < 0.01), river density (P < 0.01), fertilizer rate (P < 0.01), and road density (P < 0.05). Cr, Zn, Cu, and Ni concentrations were primarily driven by soil types (P < 0.01), river density (P < 0.01), and fertilizer rate (P < 0.05).