Trends in prevalence of selected opportunistic infections associated with HIV/AIDS in Uganda

After more than a decade of establishing and expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), empirical evidence on its impact on trends of opportunistic infections (OIs) associated with the deadly human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in resource poor settings is scarce. The primary objective of this study was to assess the effect of HAART coverage on trends of five most common OIs in Uganda.

Observational data from January 2002 to December 2013 for 5972 HIV positive individuals attending the AIDS Support Organisation (TASO) HIV/AIDS care programme in Uganda were extracted and analysed. Trends were analysed using autoregressive moving average time series and mixed effects linear regression models adjusting for all available potential confounders.

A total of 204,871 monthly medical reports were retrieved and analysed. Majority of the participants were female (73%) with a median age of 32 years (inter-quartile range 26-39). Overall, significant decreasing mean annual prevalence trends were observed for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, herpes zoster, genital ulcer and oral candidiasis (p < 0.05, X(2)trend). Non-significant declining mean annual prevalence trend was observed for cryptococcal meningitis (p = 0.181, X(2)trend). The largest impact of HAART was observed in Oral candidiasis and TB whose average annual prevalence reduced by 61% and 43% respectively following the introduction of HAART. Monthly series for TB, Herpes zoster and genital ulcers differed significantly by age and clinic but only genital ulcer series differed significantly by sex (p < 0.05, kruskal wallis). After controlling for the effects of age, sex and clinic (fixed) and monthly clustering (random effect) in a mixed effects linear regression model, all the five OIs showed a significant monthly change in prevalence (p < 0.001).

Overall, prevalence of most OIs declined especially after the introduction of HAART. However significant variations exist in the trends of different OIs in different geographical areas in Uganda. It is therefore important that site specific factors are properly identified to enable the development of targeted interventions.