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Updated: Apr 14, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Natalizumab reduces relapse clinical severity and improves relapse recovery in MS
Fred D Lublin1, Gary Cutter2, Gavin Giovannoni3
1Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, The Corinne Goldsmith Dickinson Center for MS, 5 E. 98th Street, Box 113B, New York, NY, USA.
Objectives:
Compare relapse clinical severity, post-relapse residual disability, and the probability of confirmed complete recovery from relapse between patients who relapsed during natalizumab (n=183/627 [29%]) and placebo (n=176/315 [56%]) treatments in the AFFIRM trial.
Methods:
In this post-hoc analysis, relapse clinical severity and residual disability were defined by change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score occurring between pre-relapse and at-relapse assessment and between pre-relapse and post-relapse assessment, respectively. Patients were considered completely recovered from relapse when their post-relapse EDSS score was less than or equal to their pre-relapse EDSS score, and this was maintained for 12 or 24 weeks.
Results:
At relapse, an increase in EDSS score of ≥0.5 points occurred in 71% of natalizumab and 84% of placebo patients (P=0.0088); an increase of ≥1.0 point occurred in 49% of natalizumab and 61% of placebo patients (P=0.0349) (mean increase in EDSS at relapse: natalizumab=0.77; placebo=1.09; P=0.0044). After relapse, residual disability of ≥0.5 EDSS points remained in 31% of natalizumab and 45% of placebo patients (P=0.0136) (mean post-relapse residual EDSS increase: natalizumab=0.06; placebo=0.28; P=0.0170). In patients with an increase in EDSS of ≥0.5 or ≥1.0 during relapse, natalizumab increased the probability of 12-week confirmed complete recovery from relapse by 55% (hazard ratio [HR]=1.554; P=0.0161) and 67% (HR=1.673; P=0.0319) compared to placebo, respectively.
Conclusions:
In AFFIRM, natalizumab treatment decreased the clinical severity of relapses and improved recovery from disability induced by relapses. These beneficial effects would limit the step-wise accumulation of disability.
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